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We could have gotten the average rankings fractionally closer by including Bulgaria over Uruguay in , but we wanted to include the entire knockout phrase for each World Cup. For , it comes to 7. That eliminates group matches against Nigeria 33 and Iran Even in their extra-time win over Switzerland in the round of 16 — a close call at a glance — they managed 30 shots, nine on target, a 2.
That changed as the tournament wore on and competition picked up. Argentina managed two shots on goal a round later in a win over Belgium, and some would say they were fortunate to reach the final after the Netherlands out-passed Argentina in a match that was light on scoring chances as Argentina managed a 0. So how can we substantiate or challenge these claims? We can start by considering how their teams stacked up against the five opponents in question.
Here come the numbers. Because of that, per rates are included parenthetically:. Negative values express metres withdrawn from midfield. Negative values express metres left of centre. We can begin to dig deeper with location. Their opponents often did the same with Italy taking their average touch 8. To get there, we can assess the quality of ball movement and look at the particular styles in which these teams played. As a calculation basis, a match is split into ball moves made by a player from a start zone to an end zone.
Each ball move is then assessed regarding the danger it poses to the opposition. It goes beyond expected assists by looking at the full chain of passes, weighing the probability of that pass leading to a shot later in the play. Positive oBMP is our way of differentiating simple successful passes lacking ambition from those that move the ball to more dangerous locations of the pitch.
Negative oBMP relates to the value of possessions lost or wasted by players. These scores accumulate during a match or across a competition. The first thing that stands out here is the lack of threat and ambition for the opponents in terms of BMP. Recall above that this group had the highest level of possession among the four considered, yet they have the lowest net oBMP. This makes sense because they had the lowest rate of successful passes and highest rate of bad passes, but it goes deeper than that.
It likely has something to do with their maintenance involvements. Maintenance is a possession-based playing style that captures possessions in which a team looks to maintain and secure possession within the defensive area of the pitch. The build up playing style then occurs in the attacking half from midfield to the edge of the yard box, and the sustained threat playing style is possession in the final third. But Argentina averaged about 33 more build up and sustained threat involvements than their opponents, as well as 11 more fast tempo possessions occurring in the attacking half when a player releases the ball to a teammate in under two seconds or a player dribbles at high tempo.
So when they got the ball forward, they were ambitious with their ball movement. Given the number of high press regains Maradona certainly had a say in that by making the most of his scoring opportunities, but which Argentine did more with the ball? Enough team context. So here we go: Maradona v Messi — one on one, playing for the same team, 28 years apart. Messi scored three of his four goals in the games we scratched here, while Maradona scored against Italy in group followed a few games later by consecutive braces in the England quarterfinal and Belgium semi.
First, the basics before we dig deeper into ball movement and style:. As for the least likely goals scored by Maradona or Messi in either tournament as a whole, the top two belong to Messi. Least likely was his stoppage-time winner against Iran, which came from His second goal against Nigeria, a free kick from Messi was working with roughly 14 fewer possessions per 90, yet that resulted in about nine more events.
And among those events, it resulted in nearly 20 more touches per match. Touches are differentiated from passes, shots and other ball events in that the player controls the ball and looks to retain individual possession. But Messi held the ball longer and theoretically tried to do more on his own than even Maradona, and he also had a better ratio of successful passes to bad passes 2. It seemed doomed from the start. He spun out of it and turned it into a 1 v 11 goal.
Forwards tend to give the ball away more in more advanced positions and see unfavourable oBMP- totals. Nevertheless, no Argentina player had a higher net oBMP than Messi, and no teammate who played at least half the minutes in the five matches in question had a higher per rate. That includes Javier Mascherano, who had more possessions than Messi.
This is information that absolutely adds to the discussion of which player was asked to be more of a one-man team. It feels preposterous to say as the Goal of the Century replays in our heads, but it seems Messi was. That void was never more apparent than in the final, and it likely had something to do with the absence of a teammate history will overlook.
The crucial difference, rather, lies in how those midfields performed in their respective finals. Both Argentina teams were probably outplayed in the final, at least in the traditional sense considering possession and scoring threat, though one instance was more drastic than the other. West Germany were 1. Argentina were out-possessed , but ball events were about equal with West Germany holding a advantage. Germany were 2. Argentina were out-possessed , and Germany had a substantial 2,, 1, per 90 advantage in ball events.
As we noted earlier, things changed for Argentina a match later against the Netherlands and, as we see here, they changed more drastically against Germany. Among that group, on a per basis, only Kroos 0. So in terms of ball movement, the five best players in the tournament on a per level were on the two sides that reached the final. It has been Lionel Messi that has been the difference for Argentina, scoring 4 goals in group play, and it was Messi who assisted Di Maria for the only goal against the Swiss.
For this match Argentine coach Sabella cannot count on left back Rojo because he is suspended after picking up yellow cards which means that Basanta will likely replace him. Aguero is again likely to stay on the bench which means that we will again see only one change from the Switzerland match.
Belgium, they needed extra time to win their match against USA, but they showed more promise then the Argentinians. Belgium dominated their matches they had played in but against USA they had failed to make their chances count. The Belgians have conceded only two goals from open play, because Algeria scored from the penalty and the second goal in the match of Round of 16 against the USA came after extra time.
Their strength lies in their defense and they do not concede many goals. For this match veteran van Buyten is expected to keep his place as stopper at the back for Belgium. Even though their attack is powerful, still they needed a player to come off the bench to score for them and this time is was Romelu Lukaku. He could be given a role in the starting lineup this time instead of Origi, and the only other decision the coach has to make is to field either Mirallas or Mertens.
The Betting Verdict I am still convinced that Argentina haven't unleashed what they are capable of yet and they are capable of getting the win against the Belgians in 90 minutes this time. The Pick : Argentina Belgium. Like our site? Enjoying the FREE previews? Get daily notifications of our sports betting picks by following goonersguide on twitter.
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